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Post by OscarWildeCat, Admin on Oct 24, 2020 4:07:17 GMT -6
Oscar Wildcat peeks into the future of college athletics and offers these fearless forecasts
Realignment is coming. It’s simple economics.
COViD has hit many schools hard right in the old pocketbook. We’ve already seen a number of schools including members of Power 5 conferences shed non revenue sports in an attempt to manage budgets. There is more to come and even blue blood FCS programs like Eastern Washington aren’t immune.
Move downs are more likely than move ups. It is more likely that FBS schools will drop down to FCS than the reverse. It is less likely that FCS schools will move up to FBS than down to D2 or 3.
Conferences are more likely to look for ways to compress their footprint to hold down travel expense than to chase imaginary TV money by extending footprints to distant lands.
Speaking of TV revenue it’s going to shrink. TV money won’t totally dry up but hits are coming when contracts are renewed.
For FCS schools smaller COVID guarantee game payouts are a foretaste of the future. Guarantee money will shrivel to a fraction of what it is now.
Looking at the bigger picture, enrollment will trend away from on campus attendance toward more hybrid and totally online coursework. This trend was already in motion prior to the pandemic. COViD has accelerated it. Fewer students on campus mean fewer butts in the seats come Saturday.
In the Southland Conference, budget constraints by the LA schools loom large and will create unrest in the conference. Money was tight enough prior to COViD that it’s rumored the non-LA schools would have to pay the travel expenses for away conference games. Add the financial devastation from COVID and the hurricanes and the future looks gloomy for both the affected schools and the conference.
The schools that survive will be those that anticipate the future and make adjustments early on.
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Post by bogeyman on Oct 24, 2020 6:56:29 GMT -6
If any of this is true, and I think you are right on target--then why would ACU align itself with the WAC? Seems we would be putting our heads in the sand and "hoping" the WAC was a success while denying the reality of the situation and spending tons of money we don't have. If we went that route could we afford to field soccer, volleyball, softball and baseball (all sports that have traditional home and home seasons and bring in little or -0- revenue). Why not seek to realign the SLC with Texas and near Texas universities or start a totally new conference? Could schools like NMSU, New Mexico, Tulsa, North Texas and even SMU, Rice and Houston seek to lessen their costs by realigning. Are any of those programs ready to "move down" to save their athletic budget and programs. A new conference with the current Texas SLC schools--ACU, SFA, Lamar, UIW, HBU, Sam Houston, with Tarleton, WTAM, maybe Angelo and UTRV and a drop down or two might make a pretty strong conference and save hundreds of thousands of dollars for all involved. I feel for the La schools, Covid and hurricanes weren't their fault, but they can't be allowed to destroy the financial integrity of everyone else. Let them apply for the Sun Belt or realign with a new conference made up exclusively of La and Ark proximity schools. In my eyes joining the WAC is stupid even if 3 other SLC schools join. What are they thinking???
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Post by OscarWildeCat, Admin on Oct 24, 2020 7:38:35 GMT -6
I don’t know how it will shake out. But running with Bogey’s idea.
Several current FBS teams near us aren’t competitive in football, haven’t kept pace with other mid majors budget wise and SHOULD drop down. Imagine a conference like this
NMSU
UTEP
Texas State
Rice
ACU
Sam Houston
SFA
Lamar
That would have the makings of a strong basketball and FCS football conference.
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Post by bucfan on Oct 24, 2020 9:20:54 GMT -6
Rice has plenty of money. Whether they choose to spend that on athletics is another question. I think they are probably too proud to move down to FCS. Texas State is a fairly recent move up so, even though they would be much more successful than they currently are, would probably not be interested in moving down. UTEP should have moved down years ago. Since they've won a few games this year, they may think they have turned the corner and deserve to be FBS.
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Post by OscarWildeCat, Admin on Oct 24, 2020 10:06:29 GMT -6
For a closer look at trends in women’s sports the NCAA has produced this amazingly detailed brochure. FYI, Sand Volleyball has doubled the number of teams participating in just two years with more in the works. Did you know the NCAA sponsors rifle, women’s ice hockey and bowling? www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/NCAA-WSI.pdf |
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Post by Cap'n Cattitude on Oct 24, 2020 10:14:08 GMT -6
I don’t know how it will shake out. But running with Bogey’s idea. Several current FBS teams near us aren’t competitive in football, haven’t kept pace with other mid majors budget wise and SHOULD drop down. Imagine a conference like this NMSU UTEP Texas State Rice ACU Sam Houston SFA Lamar That would have the makings of a strong basketball and FCS football conference. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to include UIW, HBU, Corpus and Rio Grande Valley. I think Rice would be inclined to stay FBS since they can afford a $25-50 million budget that none of the other schools could match. I also think SFA, Sam and Lamar would include us if they look for a new home since they perceive us as more legit than the other private schools. |
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Post by mavsman53 on Oct 24, 2020 16:50:10 GMT -6
So Bogey, you are going to stay in the Southland if SFA, Sam and Lamar leave? What if UCA leaves too? What is several of the La. schools move down to D2? Now the conference is just UIW, HBU and us. Teams can't apply to join a conference; they must be invited. So we are stuck in this conference, that then adds a bunch of D2 schools. I'm not saying the WAC is the end all, be all. However, if the other 3 schools leave, it is because they know something. They are counting on the WAC becoming a solid conference again and/or that the Southland might be in trouble. ACU must be very wise here
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Post by bogeyman on Oct 24, 2020 18:38:51 GMT -6
You have all the answers fella. I offered a possible solution. Yeah, let's raise our budget by $10 million or more when we can't even hire staff for our SID. We can't hire recruitment staff. We can't finish our stadium. Why not just go FBS independent and let the big boys come calling. Going to the WAC with the lineup of schools they have is...wac-cy. I realize the problem if schools bolt the conference but joining the WAC because SFA, Sam and Lamar do...
Why wouldn't those schools be amenable to starting something new with close rivals? I don't have any answers but there has got to be a better way than going to Utah, California, and Washington.
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Post by mavsman53 on Oct 24, 2020 19:32:32 GMT -6
Answers, no I have questions, just like you do. You stated what is ACU thinking if they look to go to the WAC. I'm saying it might not be an easy choice. You are clearly a no. But again, back to my question, those schools leave, and the La. schools drop down; we can't just say, well let's just stay. The Southland would be an absolute joke. Bogey, you have clamored many times in the past for multiple schools to make the NCAA Tournament from the conference we are in. You know why that doesn't happen? The conference is considered weak! We were #30 out of 32 conferences. You take SFA and Sam out for basketball, this conference is last. Yes, we probably become the darling of the conference and maybe that is what we go with. However, we can't become conference orphans. The WAC isn't my first choice either, but if the option is stay in the Southland with only 2 other Texas schools (UIW/HBU) or move into a conference that appears to have FBS desires, it is something that our AD will have to look at. Yes, finances could be a huge issue, which is why wisdom will be needed. If that sounds like I have all the answers, then I'm really confused.
My one answer- SMU, UNT, Houston and, Rice's, etc aren't leaving where they are to join a start up conference.
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Post by OscarWildeCat, Admin on Oct 25, 2020 4:14:50 GMT -6
If the LA schools drop out and the three other Texas schools leave, we no longer have a conference. That leaves ACU, UCA, UIW, and HBU for football and A&M Corpus Christi for other sports. And that’s only until UCA bolts.
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