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Post by hobbit on Oct 9, 2024 20:59:53 GMT -6
I know this subject has been visited many times, but it was a bit discouraging to see all the empty seats at the UCA game. The Cats are doing well this season, but u would’ve hoped for a bigger crowd. Why? Will it get better? Thoughts?
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Post by rc on Oct 9, 2024 21:16:42 GMT -6
All those empty seats were a sad thing for me. It was embarrassing in a way. Things have to change, but if we keep rising to the occasion and playing great football, I have to believe attendance will grow.
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Post by ravel74 on Oct 10, 2024 0:30:43 GMT -6
It’s was hot in the direct sunlight. A lot of people were standing under the overhang. You definitely get more people if that would have been a six o’clock kick.
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Post by catfanatic on Oct 10, 2024 5:13:16 GMT -6
It’s was hot in the direct sunlight. A lot of people were standing under the overhang. You definitely get more people if that would have been a six o’clock kick. . Agreed. Idaho game was proof of that, even though Homecoming, a day game, will be best crowd of year. I also agree, long term, continued winning will result in consistently bigger crowds. |
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Post by buckeyecat on Oct 10, 2024 10:06:02 GMT -6
It was hot even in Columbus at the Ohio State game, so I can imagine what it was like in Abilene! I gave my ACU tickets to some one who was able to go. I will add that thanks to the great wifi in Ohio Stadium, I was able to keep up with our game on ESPN+. The guys next to me were impressed as I went on about ACU's success in football this year and academics. By the time our game got going, the Ohio State - Iowa game had been pretty well settled.
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Post by dallasalum on Oct 10, 2024 12:49:50 GMT -6
I wish that every year our first home game with an afternoon kickoff was Homecoming. That most likely help at least some with the sun and heat issues
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Post by Cap'n on Oct 10, 2024 15:27:50 GMT -6
I confess, I am not a fan of discussions about attendance. In my 10 years with this forum, every single attendance discussion is exactly the same. The convos devolve into complaints about why don't more folks come to the games and how there should be more students, more faculty/staff, more alumni, more church groups, more school groups, more youth sports teams, more Abilenians in general.
Basically, why doesn't everyone else care as much as we do?
Answer. They just don't.
Realize that ACU has fewer alumni than Texas Tech has fans at every home game. North Texas has more faculty than we have students.
Hats off to Tarleton State. They are leading the UAC in attendance (20k) and are in the top five nationally. They have 13,700 undergrads and close to 100k alumni in the DFW metro.
It was suggested that UMB in Belton is a good model for school and community engagement. They are averaging 3807 this year.
UAC Average Attendance to Date (National FCS rank):
1. Tarleton 20,219 (5)
2. UCA 9,520 (28)
3. ACU 8,889 (33)
4. UNA 7,440 (49)
5. APU 6,686 (57)
6. EKU 5,447 (70)
7. UTech 4,821 (85)
8. SUU 4,288 (94)
9. UWG 3,653 (104)
Other regional teams you might be interested in
SFA 3,614 (105)
UIW 1,891 (125)
IMHO, when you put the data into the FCS landscape, we are doing pretty darn good.
I will keep this thread open. I just ask that you don't go off the rails with criticism.
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Post by dallasalum on Oct 10, 2024 17:31:59 GMT -6
I have zero complaints nor criticism of anything nor anyone. I just want to see bigger crowds, more students (who stay until the end of the games), better attendance of faculty and staff at games, more people from Abilene and the surrounding area, etc. I would like to see us brainstorm and try to accomplish any of this. Maybe it just can't be done. If so, so be it. I know that this is a steep hill to climb. I just want us to try anything that might accomplish this.
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Post by bucfan on Oct 10, 2024 19:54:32 GMT -6
I don't know where those 8800 fans are when I watch on ESPN+ Home side looks half full most of the time. Maybe they are all packed into the fancy enclosed areas eating banana pudding...
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Post by bogeyman on Oct 10, 2024 20:17:46 GMT -6
Not sure what was served last Sat but it sure wasn't banana pudding!
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Post by johnnyutah on Oct 10, 2024 20:38:50 GMT -6
I just wish the people in attendance would get loud. It’s like the fans are in Sunday church. People look at us like we are crazy when we stand up and cheer. Players and coaches deserve better!
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Post by Cap'n on Oct 10, 2024 20:41:28 GMT -6
It has long been my thesis that the more successful the program, the better the attendance. So, I'm going to geek out on you. It's the cost of having a Cap'n who's into statistics.
I decided to test my theory. The results that I am posting are pretty informal - more in the category of exploratory rather than confirmatory. If I were doing this for publication or for a client, I would never submit such "sloppy" work. But the results are pretty interesting. I hope you enjoy thinking about it.
Data: I got the data for the 2023 from the NCAA website. After looking at it I chose two variables for simple regression analysis: For the dependent variable I chose average percent of stadium capacity. I think this variable somewhat controls for differential among school size, alumni, and college town population. ACU, for example, has a 12,000 seat capacity. If we average 8,000, for example then our % capacity is 66.7. Tarleton has a 24,000 seat capacity so it takes them 16,000 to have 66.7 capacity. Since they have 4-5 times more students and alumni, I think it's a fairly good comparison.
The independent variable is winning percentage. I also looked at total wins but there was basically no difference in the results.
I took a couple of steps to smooth the data...I eliminated the Ivy League. They have very large legacy stadiums but have de-emphasized football. Penn, for example, plays in 70,000 seat Franklin Field in Philadelphia. Then I eliminated all stadiums smaller than 5000 capacity. The Patriot League, for example, has several 2-3000 capacity stadia.
So, what are the results:
With a sample size of 110, there is a .35 positive correlation between winning percentage and the percent of your stadium that is filled. That is quite a high correlation. The stats mantra is "correlation is not causation" but there is a very strong relationship between winning and attendance.
The prediction equation of the simple linear regression is significant to .0002. It suggests that if an FCS team wins 10 of 12 games for example, average attendance could be predicted at 68% of stadium capacity plus and minus error. For nerds like me, the R-squared is a low .12 suggesting that the error is mostly random and not very related to winning percentage. If 68% seems low, consider that throughout all FCS programs, capacity averages roughly 57%. (Last year ACU was at 59% this year so far its nearly 74%.
Are you asleep yet? If I were to mess around more, I might run a multiple regression and try to identify other meaningful variables but I doubt it would give much more info. So my take away is that the increase of attendance capacity above the mean is definitely influenced by winning but maybe only by about a third. History, tradition, location, money etc all play a part as well.
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Post by jaminthebody on Oct 10, 2024 21:09:32 GMT -6
It has long been my thesis that the more successful the program, the better the attendance. So, I'm going to geek out on you. It's the cost of having a Cap'n who's into statistics. I decided to test my theory. The results that I am posting are pretty informal - more in the category of exploratory rather than confirmatory. If I were doing this for publication or for a client, I would never submit such "sloppy" work. But the results are pretty interesting. I hope you enjoy thinking about it. Data: I got the data for the 2023 from the NCAA website. After looking at it I chose two variables for simple regression analysis: For the dependent variable I chose average percent of stadium capacity. I think this variable somewhat controls for differential among school size, alumni, and college town population. ACU, for example, has a 12,000 seat capacity. If we average 8,000, for example then our % capacity is 66.7. Tarleton has a 24,000 seat capacity so it takes them 16,000 to have 66.7 capacity. Since they have 4-5 times more students and alumni, I think it's a fairly good comparison. The independent variable is winning percentage. I also looked at total wins but there was basically no difference in the results. I took a couple of steps to smooth the data...I eliminated the Ivy League. They have very large legacy stadiums but have de-emphasized football. Penn, for example, plays in 70,000 seat Franklin Field in Philadelphia. Then I eliminated all stadiums smaller than 5000 capacity. The Patriot League, for example, has several 2-3000 capacity stadia. So, what are the results: With a sample size of 110, there is a .35 positive correlation between winning percentage and the percent of your stadium that is filled. That is quite a high correlation. The stats mantra is "correlation is not causation" but there is a very strong relationship between winning and attendance. The prediction equation of the simple linear regression is significant to .0002. It suggests that if an FCS team wins 10 of 12 games for example, average attendance could be predicted at 68% of stadium capacity plus and minus error. For nerds like me, the R-squared is a low .12 suggesting that the error is mostly random and not very related to winning percentage. If 68% seems low, consider that throughout all FCS programs, capacity averages roughly 57%. (Last year ACU was at 59% this year so far its nearly 74%. Are you asleep yet? If I were to mess around more, I might run a multiple regression and try to identify other meaningful variables but I doubt it would give much more info. So my take away is that the increase of attendance capacity above the mean is definitely influenced by winning but maybe only by about a third. History, tradition, location, money etc all play a part as well. I’m going to need to see some spreadsheets. What if you consider variables such as school colors or the political party of the mayor of the city. Excellent job here. There is not much more data that you can compile. |
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Post by catfanatic on Oct 10, 2024 21:18:15 GMT -6
It has long been my thesis that the more successful the program, the better the attendance. So, I'm going to geek out on you. It's the cost of having a Cap'n who's into statistics. I decided to test my theory. The results that I am posting are pretty informal - more in the category of exploratory rather than confirmatory. If I were doing this for publication or for a client, I would never submit such "sloppy" work. But the results are pretty interesting. I hope you enjoy thinking about it. Data: I got the data for the 2023 from the NCAA website. After looking at it I chose two variables for simple regression analysis: For the dependent variable I chose average percent of stadium capacity. I think this variable somewhat controls for differential among school size, alumni, and college town population. ACU, for example, has a 12,000 seat capacity. If we average 8,000, for example then our % capacity is 66.7. Tarleton has a 24,000 seat capacity so it takes them 16,000 to have 66.7 capacity. Since they have 4-5 times more students and alumni, I think it's a fairly good comparison. The independent variable is winning percentage. I also looked at total wins but there was basically no difference in the results. I took a couple of steps to smooth the data...I eliminated the Ivy League. They have very large legacy stadiums but have de-emphasized football. Penn, for example, plays in 70,000 seat Franklin Field in Philadelphia. Then I eliminated all stadiums smaller than 5000 capacity. The Patriot League, for example, has several 2-3000 capacity stadia. So, what are the results: With a sample size of 110, there is a .35 positive correlation between winning percentage and the percent of your stadium that is filled. That is quite a high correlation. The stats mantra is "correlation is not causation" but there is a very strong relationship between winning and attendance. The prediction equation of the simple linear regression is significant to .0002. It suggests that if an FCS team wins 10 of 12 games for example, average attendance could be predicted at 68% of stadium capacity plus and minus error. For nerds like me, the R-squared is a low .12 suggesting that the error is mostly random and not very related to winning percentage. If 68% seems low, consider that throughout all FCS programs, capacity averages roughly 57%. (Last year ACU was at 59% this year so far its nearly 74%. Are you asleep yet? If I were to mess around more, I might run a multiple regression and try to identify other meaningful variables but I doubt it would give much more info. So my take away is that the increase of attendance capacity above the mean is definitely influenced by winning but maybe only by about a third. History, tradition, location, money etc all play a part as well. A couple of thoughts from, as the late, great Blackie Sherrod would say, “one of the great unwashed”. First, thanks for so much of your free time for our benefit. While we may be relatively few in number, our capacity for all-things Wildcats sports is a veritable cup running over. Two, maybe the solution to ACU’s attendance “deficiency” is a bigger stadium! Go Wildcats!! #PackTheCat |
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Post by rc on Oct 10, 2024 22:29:45 GMT -6
I wonder about one other variable, the population density within the metropolitan area of your University. But no matter, your analysis is very nice, Cap'n Stat!
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