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Post by kjmike1956 on Nov 13, 2022 16:38:08 GMT -6
WAC Rankings prior to to 11-19-22 games by Massey
#29 Sam Houston St #37 ACU #49 SFA #67 Tarleton St #68 Utah Tech #69 Southern Utah
ASUN Rankings #20 Jacksonville St #32 Austin Peay #33 Eastern Kentucky #36 Central Arkansas #44 Kennesaw St #105 North Alabama
Others #8 Incarnate Word #11 North Dakota #70 Prairie View A&M #119 Lamar
I thought we would move up more than 2 spots with the win over Sam Houston St on the road.
Even if we beat SFA, I think Austin Peay or Central Arkansas could possibly sneak in ahead of us.
My expectation is that if we beat SFA and are undefeated in the WAC, we will get the nod over an ASUN team that has conference losses.
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Post by Outsider on Nov 13, 2022 19:15:47 GMT -6
I know that I am just seeking validation, but it would be nice to see us break the top 25. It would show the team they are noticed for their hard work and continuous improvement.
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Post by katdaddy98 on Nov 13, 2022 19:50:56 GMT -6
We are playing too good of ball for us not to be placed in the top 25! Think with a win over SFA and our first playoff appearance since 2011 it'll be too hard for us not to be placed in the top 25!
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Post by kjmike1956 on Nov 13, 2022 22:33:50 GMT -6
I watched the FCS Fans Nation Podcast S6E13 where they said a 0 conference loss ACU would automatically get the WAC-ASUN bid over any 1 or 2 loss ASUN teams. In other words if they are correct, ACU automatically makes the playoffs if they beat SFA.
Listen at the 19 minute mark.
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Post by ybp80 on Nov 14, 2022 7:31:09 GMT -6
I watched the FCS Fans Nation Podcast S6E13 where they said a 0 conference loss ACU would automatically get the WAC-ASUN bid over any 1 or 2 loss ASUN teams. In other words if they are correct, ACU automatically makes the playoffs if they beat SFA. Listen at the 19 minute mark. Someone should send that dude some ACU gear as well as teach him how to say Abilene. It’s not pronounced Abeline.
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Post by Outsider on Nov 14, 2022 9:56:51 GMT -6
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Post by bogeyman on Nov 14, 2022 12:42:19 GMT -6
Just wondering about the analytics that go into the ranking systems developed by Massey, etc. I agree that strength of schedule, points for and against etc. have their place but when teams go head to head, I have a hard time ranking a loser ahead of the winner.
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Post by Cap'n Cattitude on Nov 14, 2022 16:44:31 GMT -6
Bogey, I’ve been watching Massey for quite a while and as I have a wee bit of knowledge about regression models, I have observed two variables which seem to me to have a lot of influence on the rankings. And they are interrelated.
First, last years record determines where a team starts. Second, strength of schedule has a huge role.
These two combined creates a self-fulfilling prophecy as teams from certain conferences start high and thus have higher starting SOS. Case in point, it has taken 3 years for UIW to climb into the the Massey top 10 despite the strength of their program.
Now, this is not necessarily wrong. Massey has a Massey-ive amount of data from which to build his algorithm. Generally, he’s right on but it’s frustrating at times. Luckily, there is very little correlation between the Massey ratings and the WACASun rating system.
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Post by jCat on Nov 15, 2022 11:37:36 GMT -6
I watched the FCS Fans Nation Podcast S6E13 where they said a 0 conference loss ACU would automatically get the WAC-ASUN bid over any 1 or 2 loss ASUN teams. In other words if they are correct, ACU automatically makes the playoffs if they beat SFA. Listen at the 19 minute mark. These guys don't have a good read on how the WAC-ASUN Power Rankings. It took me a lot of looking, but here are the numbers: EKU draws Kennesaw State (the preseason ASUN #1 seed and current #5 in power rankings) on Saturday. The computers may crown Colonels as the champ and give them a playoff spot if they win that game. Would ACU's victory over SFA (the current #4) be enough to overtake them? And should EKU lose, will we earn enough points to surpass Austin Peay (who is definitely getting paid to lose to Alabama in Tuscaloosa)? I think ACU exacts some revenge this week on the Lumberjacks but is it enough to playoff bid? Warren Nolen's computer-inspired WAC-ASUN rankings will decide our fate.
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Post by kjmike1956 on Nov 15, 2022 12:45:07 GMT -6
First of all if Central Arkansas beats Jacksonville St this week, (and they are a 1.5 point favorite at home), they will win the ASUN. They have beaten Austin Peay, Kennesaw St, and North Alabama and have lost to Eastern Kentucky. They are actually 3-1 in the ASUN, not 3-2 as shown above.
I do not think a 6-5 Central Arkansas would overtake us, if we win and go 8-3 undefeated in the WAC.
If Central Arkansas and Eastern Kentucky both lose, I think Central Arkansas would be champion because they beat Austin Peay head to head.
If Central Arkansas loses and Eastern Kentucky beats Kennessaw St there would be a three way tie at 3-2 in the ASUN between, Eastern Kentucky, Austin Peay and Central Arkansas with each team 1-1 against the other 2 teams and I am not sure who would be declared ASUN champion.
We should pull against Eastern Kentucky against Kennesaw St in 2pm game. If Eastern Kentucky wins we pull for Central Arkansas in 4pm game. If Eastern Kentucky loses we pull for Jacksonville St in 4pm game.
IF ACU loses, the ASUN champion will go to the playoff over SFA.
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Post by jaminthebody on Nov 15, 2022 16:03:43 GMT -6
First of all if Central Arkansas beats Jacksonville St this week, (and they are a 1.5 point favorite at home), they will win the ASUN. They have beaten Austin Peay, Kennesaw St, and North Alabama and have lost to Eastern Kentucky. They are actually 3-1 in the ASUN, not 3-2 as shown above. I do not think a 6-5 Central Arkansas would overtake us, if we win and go 8-3 undefeated in the WAC. If Central Arkansas and Eastern Kentucky both lose, I think Central Arkansas would be champion because they beat Austin Peay head to head. If Central Arkansas loses and Eastern Kentucky beats Kennessaw St there would be a three way tie at 3-2 in the ASUN between, Eastern Kentucky, Austin Peay and Central Arkansas with each team 1-1 against the other 2 teams and I am not sure who would be declared ASUN champion. We should pull against Eastern Kentucky against Kennesaw St in 2pm game. If Eastern Kentucky wins we pull for Central Arkansas in 4pm game. If Eastern Kentucky loses we pull for Jacksonville St in 4pm game. IF ACU loses, the ASUN champion will go to the playoff over SFA. I think either a UCA win or a EKU loss would result in us getting the AQ bid after winning against Stephen F.
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Post by jCat on Nov 15, 2022 16:46:30 GMT -6
I guess this is the problem if two conferences are sharing an automatic bid, but they resist playing each other.
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Post by texas48 on Nov 16, 2022 8:24:20 GMT -6
Heard from someone in the know....to get the AQ: • ACU has to defeat SFA • One of the following has to happen: - Central Ark wins at home against Jacksonville State - Kennesaw State wins at Eastern Ky
So after the Wildcats win, we need to root for
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Post by Cap'n Cattitude on Nov 17, 2022 16:18:40 GMT -6
I’m not going to project until the SFA game is settled but an undefeated 8-3 WAC champion would be in the at-large conversation, I think.
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Post by Outsider on Nov 17, 2022 18:07:10 GMT -6
I’m not going to project until the SFA game is settled but an undefeated 8-3 WAC champion would be in the at-large conversation, I think. We just need to take care of business Saturday and let it play out afterwards. We would have already made our statement...
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