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Post by Outsider on Oct 4, 2022 18:32:24 GMT -6
I am not sure we score 28 points. I am also not convinced we need to in order to win. Sam didn't. What I do know is that we have to contain them. If we can get a turnover or two that would also help. I agree that strange things happen in Nac. This will indeed help tell us where we really are as a team, and as a program.
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Post by Outsider on Oct 4, 2022 19:03:09 GMT -6
KP Presser: not much about Saturday though.
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Post by Cap'n Cattitude on Oct 4, 2022 21:26:34 GMT -6
I am not sure we score 28 points. I am also not convinced we need to in order to win. Sam didn't. What I do know is that we have to contain them. If we can get a turnover or two that would also help. I agree that strange things happen in Nac. This will indeed help tell us where we really are as a team, and as a program. Wait? What? Can we score 28 points? Can we contain them? Playing them will define us? Can they score on our defense? Except for Missou, we’ve given up 14, 13, 7 and 10. Can we score on their defense? Except for Warner, they’ve given up 42, 52, 27, and 17. Looks more like playing us will define them. The Jacks have 5 preseason all Americans, 14 preseason all WAC, 5 players on watch lists. Obviously, they are the number 1 team in the country!! No? Their reality is that they have virtually no chance to make the playoffs. The point of this? We need to get over our inferiority complex. Guess what? WE aren’t out of playoff contention. (BTW, The one SFA player who is living up the hype is Myles Heard. He is a great player having a great season.)
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Post by Outsider on Oct 4, 2022 22:01:13 GMT -6
I am not sure we score 28 points. I am also not convinced we need to in order to win. Sam didn't. What I do know is that we have to contain them. If we can get a turnover or two that would also help. I agree that strange things happen in Nac. This will indeed help tell us where we really are as a team, and as a program. Wait? What? Can we score 28 points? Can we contain them? Playing them will define us? Can they score on our defense? Except for Missou, we’ve given up 14, 13, 7 and 10. Can we score on their defense? Except for Warner, they’ve given up 42, 52, 27, and 17. Looks more like playing us will define them. The Jacks have 5 preseason all Americans, 14 preseason all WAC, 5 players on watch lists. Obviously, they are the number 1 team in the country!! No? Their reality is that they have virtually no chance to make the playoffs. The point of this? We need to get over our inferiority complex. Guess what? WE aren’t out of playoff contention. (BTW, The one SFA player who is living up the hype is Myles Heard. He is a great player having a great season.) I didn't say that playing SFA would define us. I am happy you are feeling positive, or annoyed; whichever.
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Post by Cap'n Cattitude on Oct 5, 2022 10:11:44 GMT -6
I am not sure we score 28 points. I am also not convinced we need to in order to win. Sam didn't. What I do know is that we have to contain them. If we can get a turnover or two that would also help. I agree that strange things happen in Nac. This will indeed help tell us where we really are as a team, and as a program.Sounds pretty defining to me. Nah. I'm certainly not annoyed except that I'm not particularly impressed by SFA. (Can you tell?) I have watched the Jacks play twice ... Jax St and Sam. I'm not ready to predict but here is how I think the two teams measure up. Offense QB Advantage SFA. RB Advantage ACU TE Advantage ACUWR Even OL (Run Blocking) Advantage ACU OL (Pass Blocking) Advantage SFA Overall Offense Advantage SFA primarily because of Self
Defense
S Advantage ACU except for Heard who's in a class by himself CB Advantage ACULB Advantage ACU DL (Against the run) Advantage ACUDL (Against the pass) Advantage SFAOverall Defense Advantage ACU
Commentary:Pretty even game, I think. As in any matchup, neither team can afford to give up the ball. If SFA wins, it will be because of Trae Self. He has not had a good game this year and I certainly don't want him to start now. If ACU wins, it will be because the OL dominates against a so-so front six for SFA and Heard ends up making every tackle.
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Post by Outsider on Oct 5, 2022 12:10:41 GMT -6
I am not sure we score 28 points. I am also not convinced we need to in order to win. Sam didn't. What I do know is that we have to contain them. If we can get a turnover or two that would also help. I agree that strange things happen in Nac. This will indeed help tell us where we really are as a team, and as a program.Sounds pretty defining to me. Nah. I'm certainly not annoyed except that I'm not particularly impressed by SFA. (Can you tell?) I have watched the Jacks play twice ... Jax St and Sam. I'm not ready to predict but here is how I think the two teams measure up. Offense QB Advantage SFA. RB Advantage ACU TE Advantage ACUWR Even OL (Run Blocking) Advantage ACU OL (Pass Blocking) Advantage SFA Overall Offense Advantage SFA primarily because of Self
Defense
S Advantage ACU except for Heard who's in a class by himself CB Advantage ACULB Advantage ACU DL (Against the run) Advantage ACUDL (Against the pass) Advantage SFAOverall Defense Advantage ACU
Commentary:Pretty even game, I think. As in any matchup, neither team can afford to give up the ball. If SFA wins, it will be because of Trae Self. He has not had a good game this year and I certainly don't want him to start now. If ACU wins, it will be because the OL dominates against a so-so front six for SFA and Heard ends up making every tackle. The game will indeed HELP tell us WHERE we are, not WHO we are; BIG BIG difference. So, no, not very defining. The statement also holds weight. SFA will be our highest ranked FCS opponent yet. I know you aren't that impressed with SFA. I think all of us would agree that they were probably a little overrated this year. Still, they have the skills and have played a stronger SOS than us. They have slipped in the polls and the power rankings though exactly because they haven't shown to be as strong as they have been. Their wins, like ours, haven't been convincing (Minus their exhibition). Sam is also not playing like they used to and barely beat them. They would still beat Lamar, PVAM and Utah Tech. Our wins, again, have not been impressive (minus our defense). Our OL hasn't dominated all year, so I am not sure they will start now. They did begin to wear down Utah Tech last week. Given the fact that the game is more evenly matched and this is our first biggest test, it will show whether we have grown or we really are still a low to mediocre offense with a really good defense. Because it is SFA, and in Nac, it will test us and we will evaluate. I certainly think this game is winnable for us. I feel more so that way now than in August. I am not ready to say we will win or to give us a majority of advantage yet because we do still need more growth. Over-all I don't think you and I are that far apart. You are just being a little more optimistic. For now I am still being careful, even though I love our 4-1/1-0 record. I like that our Cats have learned how to win and finish games. I don't think we are play-off caliber yet and with our SOS, again with better rated teams in the ASUN (with stronger SOS), don't see us making the play-offs even if we continue to win the majority of our games. Most others outside of Abilene don't think so either. So, if we beat SFA, in Nac, that will begin to change. Why? Because it will help show that we have indeed moved from a team not worth considering to one that has shown to be worth considering. It doesn't define us, but it will show a continued growth and improvement.
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Post by jCat on Oct 5, 2022 15:53:29 GMT -6
One of the defining matchups in this game is Lumberjacks front 7/pass rush vs the ACU offensive line. If there's any traction in pass blocking--and I'm not looking for heroic play here, Sam got just a little out of their shaky QB--then our receivers might have their best game of the year. Our backs are good enough to do some damage against SFA. It will give them some outstanding experience just like they got last week.
Cap mentions that SFA receivers are about even with the Cats. I'm skeptical here. They have a cluster of guys who have made big catches in games.
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Post by Cap'n Cattitude on Oct 6, 2022 10:32:13 GMT -6
Cap mentions that SFA receivers are about even with the Cats. I'm skeptical here. They have a cluster of guys who have made big catches in games.
So JCat, are you basing that on reputation or actual 2022 results. Take a look.
*Full disclosure. SFA’s stats are inflated by the Warner game so I took those out. Therefore, the Jacks’ stats are for 4 games rather than 5.
1. The SFA receivers work with a much, much better QB than ACU receivers. If the QB situation were reversed, I suspect we would be raving about the ACU receivers. At the same time, SFA has played the tougher schedule. 2.ACU’s top receivers are Clark, Golightly, Catalon, Taylor, Ballard and Scruggs. They average 13 catches and 181 ypg. SFAs top receivers are Gibson, Wegman, Simmons, Miller and Rikel. They average 10 catches per game for 125 yards. 3. The SFA receivers have 2 catches for more than 50 yards. ACU has no receptions over 50 yards. Both resulted in touchdowns. However, the Wildcats average 2 more yards per catch overall. 4. So head to head, who would You take? Clark (22/214) or Gipson (14/145)? Golightly (14/236) or Simmons (10/135)? Catalon (16/214) or Wegman? (6/135) Taylor (7/141) or Rikel (8/121)? Ballard (3/73) or Miller (5/94)?
So really, they have one receiver who has made big catches in games. Last year Gipson had 1000 more yards than the next receiver. But overall, it looks about even.
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Post by texas48 on Oct 6, 2022 10:35:45 GMT -6
Just a few notes on stats for Saturday's game... though I am taking out the team stats from the Warner game for SFA.
• The Wildcats are averaging 165.6 yards on the ground (4.1 per carry) and 233.6 yards in the air (11.92 per catch). Dobbins leads the team with 78 rushes for 392 yards and three scores (5.0 per touch). Banks is second with 65 touches for 296 yards and two scores (4.6 per carry). McIvor is 68-120-4 for 825 yards and five touchdowns. Long is 30-57-0 for 343 yards and two TDs. Clark leads the team with 22 catches for 265 yards and two TDs while Golightly is second with 14-236 and Catalon is third (16-214). ACU is led by Bradley with 25 tackles, followed by Moffett (22) and Paup (21). Morgan tops the team with nine tackles for loss, while the defense has 40 TFL (-132) and 10 sacks (-71). Hargrove leads the team with sacks (3 for -20). Burke is averaging 42.04 yards per punt and Zepeda is 5-11 in FG (long of 44). Zepeda is also averaging 64.5 yards per kickoff and has 22 TBs.
• In the four games not playing Warner, SFA has averaged 125.5 yards on the ground on 149 carries (3.4 yards per rush). The Jacks have thrown for 777 yards (194.25 per game) and 7 TDs. They are allowing 246.25 yards on the ground (8.5 per carry) and 192 yards passing per outing (762 yards total). Jerrell Wimbley leads the team with 35 caries for 211 yards and a touchdown. Xavier Gipson leads the team with 20 catches for 294 yards and three scores. Trae Self is 70-129 for 950 yards and 10 TDs. If you take out the NAIA game, he is 58-115 for 684 yards and six TDs. The D is led by Myles Heard with 42 total tackles (had 14 against SHSU last week). The Jacks have recorded 25 tackles for loss of -132 yards, including 10 sacks for -81 yards. They have allowed 30 tackles for loss of -117 yards and been sacked 9 times for -44 yards. Kicker Chris Campos is 8-9 with a long of 47. They have averaged 33.14 yards per punt return and allowed 8.6. They have kicked an average of 14.93 on kickoff returns and allowed 18.11.
I think this game is going to be close, and being on the road, I would sure most people not associated with the Wildcats would say SFA by a nose.
I'm going to call it ACU 38 - SFA 32.
Let's go 'Cats!
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Post by OscarWildeCat, Admin on Oct 6, 2022 10:47:03 GMT -6
Just a few notes on stats for Saturday's game... though I am taking out the team stats from the Warner game for SFA. • The Wildcats are averaging 165.6 yards on the ground (4.1 per carry) and 233.6 yards in the air (11.92 per catch). Dobbins leads the team with 78 rushes for 392 yards and three scores (5.0 per touch). Banks is second with 65 touches for 296 yards and two scores (4.6 per carry). McIvor is 68-120-4 for 825 yards and five touchdowns. Long is 30-57-0 for 343 yards and two TDs. Clark leads the team with 22 catches for 265 yards and two TDs while Golightly is second with 14-236 and Catalon is third (16-214). ACU is led by Bradley with 25 tackles, followed by Moffett (22) and Paup (21). Morgan tops the team with nine tackles for loss, while the defense has 40 TFL (-132) and 10 sacks (-71). Hargrove leads the team with sacks (3 for -20). Burke is averaging 42.04 yards per punt and Zepeda is 5-11 in FG (long of 44). Zepeda is also averaging 64.5 yards per kickoff and has 22 TBs. • In the four games not playing Warner, SFA has averaged 125.5 yards on the ground on 149 carries (3.4 yards per rush). The Jacks have thrown for 777 yards (194.25 per game) and 7 TDs. They are allowing 246.25 yards on the ground (8.5 per carry) and 192 yards passing per outing (762 yards total). Jerrell Wimbley leads the team with 35 caries for 211 yards and a touchdown. Xavier Gipson leads the team with 20 catches for 294 yards and three scores. Trae Self is 70-129 for 950 yards and 10 TDs. If you take out the NAIA game, he is 58-115 for 684 yards and six TDs. The D is led by Myles Heard with 42 total tackles (had 14 against SHSU last week). The Jacks have recorded 25 tackles for loss of -132 yards, including 10 sacks for -81 yards. They have allowed 30 tackles for loss of -117 yards and been sacked 9 times for -44 yards. Kicker Chris Campos is 8-9 with a long of 47. They have averaged 33.14 yards per punt return and allowed 8.6. They have kicked an average of 14.93 on kickoff returns and allowed 18.11. I think this game is going to be close, and being on the road, I would sure most people not associated with the Wildcats would say SFA by a nose. I'm going to call it ACU 38 - SFA 32. Let's go 'Cats! Sagarin has ACU by a nose. So do I.
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Post by Cap'n Cattitude on Oct 6, 2022 11:05:06 GMT -6
Couple of stat adjustments TX48. Gipson was 6/149 against Warner and SFA had 14 TFL including 7 sacks against Warner. So on the year (adjusted) they have 11 TFL inc 3 sacks. EDIT. This is how messed up SFA stats are. Against Warner they averaged 48.8 per punt return. Against everyone else, Gipson has 3 returns for 36 yards which is still good.
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Post by Outsider on Oct 6, 2022 14:39:05 GMT -6
This game has me intrigued for sure. For the first time we actually received more than a brief passing mention on the WACSUN podcast. They really weren't paying ANY attention to us, especially our defense. They were surprised we held Utah Tech to what we did. We have established ourselves as a team worth watching. The last half of the season will be the toughest. I hope we can begin to separate ourselves, but am watching for now. I think the fact that we do have the ability to walk out of Nac with a win is what makes me so nervous. Carthel is going to have his team worked up and looking for payback. If we stay steady and win the turnover battle they will have a hard time against us. We HAVE to play a full 4 quarters though. Can we come out firing this time?
**I'll add that they had a nice interview with Coach KP on the WAC Podcast today.**
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Post by ybp80 on Oct 6, 2022 16:33:56 GMT -6
I hope I’m wrong. SFA 20 ACU 13
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Post by rc on Oct 6, 2022 16:51:58 GMT -6
I hope I'm right. ACU 24 SFA 14
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Post by kjmike1956 on Oct 6, 2022 18:57:36 GMT -6
I think it is going to be a tough game. I think SFA wins by a field goal, but I hope I am wrong.
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