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Post by bogeyman on Dec 23, 2021 11:23:46 GMT -6
Non conference games are now over. A 9-2 record was about as good as I could have hoped for (taking in consideration the tourney we lost and the double OT loss to A&M). How will we match up to other WAC schools? We know SFA will be tough, Sam Houston has a shooter that has given us trouble but I know so little about the other teams. NMSU is playing at a high level, Grand Canyon will have a decided height advantage over us, Utah Valley has a dominant big man (6'11") and Seattle has been playing well. Do you think the pre-conference ranking of 5th for us is accurate? Can we play ourselves into another NCAA bid? What say ye?
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Post by houstoncat on Dec 23, 2021 13:18:34 GMT -6
I really hope (and believe we will) beat UVU cause it sure seems like the other WAC schools are sleeping on us on the WAC forum. Would feel real nice to get that first win since our record and the way we played A&M hasn't seemed to be enough.
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Post by acutrackfan on Dec 23, 2021 14:34:00 GMT -6
Bogey, I really like our chances in WAC play. There is good balance in the WAC this year. Our defense can keep us competitive in any WAC game. We have 18 conference games coming up. So, a 12-6 conference mark gives ACU a 21-8 overall record. Get to the tourney and anything can happen. After UT last year and TAMU this season, it is hard to believe that any schools in WAC are overlooking us, but they are and that should make it easier on ACU.
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Post by wildcatter on Dec 23, 2021 14:45:44 GMT -6
I think there are 6-7 teams that can cause real problems:
NM State
GCU
SFA
UVU
Seattle
Cal Baptist
Tarleton
Our first half of conference play is really much tougher than the latter half. Lamar, Dixie St. and UTRGV are the weakest teams heading in to conference and really, Sam hasn’t impressed much thus far. We have road trips where we go play two at a time and we have to split the first couple of those (UVU and Dixie St, GCU and NM st,) sandwiched around hosting Sam and SFA. We then host Cal Baptist and Seattle. I would love to see us 5-3 through that first 8 considering we are facing roughly the top 6 teams to kick things off.
I think there are 5 teams that can make it to March madness and we are one of them, but it’s going to be a grind.
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Post by Outsider on Dec 23, 2021 15:26:13 GMT -6
I think there are 6-7 teams that can cause real problems: NM State GCU SFA UVU Seattle Cal Baptist Tarleton Our first half of conference play is really much tougher than the latter half. Lamar, Dixie St. and UTRGV are the weakest teams heading in to conference and really, Sam hasn’t impressed much thus far. We have road trips where we go play two at a time and we have to split the first couple of those (UVU and Dixie St, GCU and NM st,) sandwiched around hosting Sam and SFA. We then host Cal Baptist and Seattle. I would love to see us 5-3 through that first 8 considering we are facing roughly the top 6 teams to kick things off. I think there are 5 teams that can make it to March madness and we are one of them, but it’s going to be a grind. I would agree with most of this. We are up to #132 on Kenpom and #84 on Net Rankings going into WAC play. We have showed most that we haven't really dropped off from last year. Still, the WAC teams won't be easy. The games I have really been looking at for us are: UVU, GCU, NMSU, SFA, Cal Baptist and Seattle. Still UTRGV, Tarleton and SHSU could spoil a party. We can't take any team for granted. The fact that we play3 of the toughest on their court makes me cringe a little, but our guys seem to be playing really mature. The key is how we handle the big guys. So far, our strategy has been to disrupt their ability to move the ball, pass and get into position. We try to force those teams into our style of play. SO far it is working in our favor. I think the strategy to not worry about offensive rebounds so much is Tanner's decision to just go back and defend even if we miss. His words keep going back to points over turnovers; go back to defense. If we miss a shot, just defend them again, turn it over and score again. That will be tested in WAC play. On nights where that isn't working for us, are we going to adjust or just grind it out regardless? Either way, it's time to continue to prove ourselves against more consistent tougher competition. |
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Post by acumedic on Dec 23, 2021 15:33:48 GMT -6
So we do or do not try to get offensive rebounds? I’ve seen it described both ways.
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Post by Outsider on Dec 23, 2021 15:53:58 GMT -6
So we do or do not try to get offensive rebounds? I’ve seen it described both ways. Nothing is 100%, but what I have watched the last couple of DI games was most of our guys turning around and running back downcourt to set up their defense immediatley after a shot while at least 2-3 guys from the other team were rebounding. Our defensive rebounding has been more actively pursued. I have given the stats from last game. Below are the rebound stats from CSUB and Drexel. CSUB: ORB = 9 DRB = 22 Drexel" ORB = 8 DRB = 26 Now, is ALL of that from lack of effort? No, absolutely not. But they do show we are actively getting more defensive rebounds than offensive rebounds consistently. That seems to especially be true when we play DI teams where the rebounding competition will be tougher. For instance, we were 17 & 30 rebounding against HPU. We were 13 & 27 rebounding against Dallas. I have been watching them in these situations from game to game. AGAIN, that strategy is working so far; if it really is a strategy. IF we continue it into WAC play, will we continue to be as successful in our other areas to where offense rebounds won't really matter? Our FT have been good. We are continuing to create turnovers as well. Still, we have shown ourselves prone to turning the ball over when challenged defensively and we have gone on some dry spells in our shooting at times. We may very well grind it out to success. We do get offensive rebounds at times, but they have not shown to be as prevalent as defensive ones. Time will tell how much that matters. |
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Post by acumedic on Dec 23, 2021 16:37:27 GMT -6
Doesn’t pretty much every team get more defensive rebounds than offensive?
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Post by Outsider on Dec 23, 2021 16:52:06 GMT -6
Doesn’t pretty much every team get more defensive rebounds than offensive? I would say yes, and as below shows, some would say the offensive rebound doesn't matter if the other stats can better cover the team with less risk. That may be what we are doing. The issue I brought up was the percentage of offense to defense and we consistently seem to fall behind. How well will our other stats stack up in consistently better ranked games? When those margins narrow, will ORB% matter? Our offense, in general, has been showing to be better off this year. www.newyorker.com/sports/sporting-scene/do-offensive-rebounds-matterI'll add this one as well, even though it speaks against my argument. Both articles focus on the NBA but correlate to college level. The one below brings it up as more colleges coach to this style. paceandspacehoops.com/offensive-rebounds-vs-getting-back-on-defense-which-is-more-effective/ |
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Post by CrazyPurpleCat on Dec 23, 2021 18:03:11 GMT -6
I don’t remember who posted and in which thread talking about how close we came to a Quad 1 win against A&M and we probably haven’t had hardly any opportunities for that. Interestingly enough as mentioned here we are #84 in NET rankings right now. A good WAC opening win against UVU could push us close to #75 or better which would be huge. Then if someone beat us at home (Teague Magic won’t let that happen) we’d be a Quad 1 win for them. Insane to think that we are that close to falling into the Quad 1 category
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Post by jaminthebody on Dec 23, 2021 18:12:04 GMT -6
I don’t remember who posted and in which thread talking about how close we came to a Quad 1 win against A&M and we probably haven’t had hardly any opportunities for that. Interestingly enough as mentioned here we are #84 in NET rankings right now. A good WAC opening win against UVU could push us close to #75 or better which would be huge. Then if someone beat us at home (Teague Magic won’t let that happen) we’d be a Quad 1 win for them. Insane to think that we are that close to falling into the Quad 1 category I believe we would’ve been a Quad 1 win if anyone beat us in Teague last year, which obviously did not happen. |
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