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Post by Cap'n on Jul 7, 2024 15:49:25 GMT -6
I’ve been looking at what the league has been up to since last season: coaching changes, recruiting, transfers in and out and previous year’s results. Going into fall camp in August, here’s some thoughts about how next season might turn out one team at a time.
BUT, I want your feedback whether you agree or not. I especially want to hear from those of you who are fans of other conference schools and lurk around Wildcat Chat to see what we have to say. You know your team better than I do and I want to know what I am getting right or wrong.
Finally, the week before the season starts, we’ll have a prediction free-for-all and poll and compare everybody’s crystal ball.
From somewhere in the Mediterranean Sea the first of the worst is the Utah Tech Trailblazers.
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Post by Cap'n on Jul 7, 2024 15:54:06 GMT -6
The 2024 Trailblazers are competing in their first year as a playoff eligible FCS member. Following a 2-9 season (1-5 UAC) coach Paul Peterson was removed and replaced by Lance Anderson. Anderson comes to Utah Tech after one year as an analyst at Boise State but was a defensive coach at Stanford for 16 years. This is his first head coaching position.
As you probably expect, they have undergone a massive roster turnover losing among others UAC freshman of the year WR Beau Sparks (Texas State) and unanimous all-UAC LB Syrus Webster (Washington St).
Only a single offensive starter and eight of the 2-deep return. Coach Anderson brings in 8 offensive high school recruits including 2 that caught my eye as possible immediate contributors: RB Asa Chatman from Lake Elsinore CA and WR Demarion Jenkins from Belle Grade, Florida.
The big catch among 8 offensive transfers is QB Deacon Hill from Iowa. In 2024 Hill threw for 1,152 yds with a 48.6% completion rate. But remember, Iowa was a rushing team and Hill was the starter in the Big10 championship game. Others are RB Shamar Garrett, San Jose St.; WR Damon Harris, UConn; WR Joshua Nicholson and OT Rambo Mageo, San Diego St.; TE Eni Fayali, UMass; and QB Luke McPhail, Syracuse. Other than Hill, Harris could be a difference maker.
They are much more experienced on defense with 8 starters and 17 of the 2-deep returning. Like the rest of us, they are thin on the DL. The Blazers recruited 9 defensive prep players including 5 DL. I think S Foster Slaughter (6’1 175) from Perris, CA is the best high school recruit on defense. They added another 5 defensive transfers: LB Elijah Wood, San Jose St; LB Spencer Rich, Memphis; DL Dane Whalen, Nichols St.; DL Tomasi Malafu Fakatoumafi, Williams College; and CB Caleb Canada, Mississippi Valley State.
As we know, it’s impossible to determine exactly what anybody’s roster looks like until the first game. Given what we know now, I think it will be tough for this team to stay out of the UAC cellar. 2 or 3 wins seems probable and 4 or 5 will be an exceptional year. They start at Montana St and their money game is UNLV. They beat SFA last year but don’t play them in 2024.
ACU plays at Utah Tech in the Trailblazer’s homecoming game on Sept 28. Early season travel to Utah is best for us and I predict a Wildcat victory.
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Post by Cap'n on Jul 11, 2024 7:35:58 GMT -6
West Georgia Wolves
Trying to evaluate a D2->D1 team in the first transition year is almost impossible. Long time D2 HC David Dean abruptly resigned at the end of last season. However, the Wolves made a good hire, I think, in Joel Taylor. Taylor was a very productive DC for FCS Mercer. A former player and coach for SC State, Taylor will know how to recruit the fertile fields of the Southeast. On the downside, he has never been a head coach at any level.
On offense there are 5 starters and a total of 9 returnees from the 2-deep. A huge loss is QB Cameran Brown who transferred to Texas Tech. They signed QB David Wydner (6’5 220) from Ole Miss. Wydner was highly recruited out of high school but did not play any at Mississippi. The best returning player is RB Rajaez Mosely (5’7 193). They also added QB Quincy Casey (6’1 180) from Alabama A&M. Sr center David Bodden was 3 time all GSC. Of course, almost nothing is known about the offense except that the OC, Dane Stevens, worked as an analyst under Lane Kiffen and has never been a coordinator.
Defensively, I expect WGU to be pretty good with HC Taylor as the defensive coordinator. (Mike Adams from Mercer was originally hired as DC but left to join U of Virginia as linebackers coach) 3 starters and 8 total from the 2-deep return from last year, 7 of whom are defensive backs. Of the 15 mid year transfers, 9 are defensive players. Their strength is in the defensive backfield but they are smallish and obviously haven’t played against anything like the big receivers in the UAC.
Schedule and Outlook
The Wolves open with FCS Samford followed by a road trips to ACU and Eastern Kentucky. They don’t have a money game this year rather they play two home D2 games against Lincoln and Shorter. It’s difficult to imagine WGU winning any D1 games this year but you never know. I think they will win 2-3 games and lose to ACU in Abilene. Note: Post-SFA, WGU is now a conference game.
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Post by Outsider on Jul 11, 2024 11:17:22 GMT -6
Agree with you on the Wolves. They are going to have a tough first year in the UAC.
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Post by Cap'n on Jul 13, 2024 15:42:22 GMT -6
The next team in this sequence should have been North Alabama. However, they have not posted a 2024 roster yet so I’m moving on to the Eastern Kentucky Colonels.
Their campus is in Richmond KY which is in the same region as Cane Ridge KY site of a huge revival in 1801 from which grew the roots of the restoration movement that gave rise to the church(es) of Christ and ACU. Although there was a predecessor college, EKU also traces its history to 1906.
The last 3 years, EKU has gone 5-6, 7-5 (includes a playoff loss to Gardner-Webb), and 7-4 (includes a 30-15 win over ACU).
Offensively, the Colonels must replace every starting skill player including QB Parker McKinzie. It’s hard to imagine transfer Matt Morrissey (Western Illinois) or backup Cameron Hergott being nearly as productive. On the other hand, there are four starters returning on the OL including all-conference tackle Payton Collins and a fine tight end in Hunter Brown.
Defensively, 6 starters return, 3 DL and 3 LB. They are rebuilding in the secondary. I’m sure I probably missed something, but no one jumps out at me as a big time playmaker.
As for this season’s outlook, the Colonels are unlikely to lead the conference in offense again. There is enough experience to be competitive in every game but probably only win about half of them. They open the season at Mississippi St followed at FBS Western Kentucky. Looks like a 6-6 or 5-7 season for EKU. ACU wins this game at homecoming.
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Post by Cap'n on Jul 17, 2024 12:39:27 GMT -6
Just a note. These “Worst to First” posts are not meant to predict UAC outcomes. We will have a chance to air out our predictions just before the TT game.
So, on to Austin Peay. The Governors will have a new head coach and must replace 20 of 22 players who started the last regular season game against Central Oklahoma. They seemingly made an excellent coaching hire in Jeff Faris who spent 10 years at Duke followed by 2 years as Chip Kelly’s tight ends coach at UCLA. Faris has never been a head coach at any level but is considered an up-and-comer.
Offensively, the Governors lost the offensive player of the year in the UAC among others. Their best three portal signees look very good: QB Mason Garcia 6’5 238 East Carolina; RB La’Vell Wright 6’0 Kentucky; Malik Bowen-Sims 6’2 180 Duke. Chandler Kirton, all UAC interior lineman returns but heads a very inexperienced group of OL. Unfortunately, most of the skill position talent followed former head coach and Hardin Simmons player Scotty Walden to UTEP.
Defensively, things don’t look all that much better experience-wise. DT Hosea Knifely was 2nd team UAC in 2023 but is the only returning defensive starter. There is very little experience elsewhere on defense. Unless they have brought in transfers that I can’t find, they will be remarkably young without a lot of size.
The Outlook. There are multiple people putting Peay in the top 25. I, for one, don’t see their season going that way. They open at Louisville, then Southern Illinois at home, UCA on the road, home against Alabama A&M and Home against Southern Utah. It’s very possible they will open 1-4. Tarleton is likely a loss even in Clarksville. Then a stretch that includes Utah Tech, North Alabama, ACU and EKU. They finish at nome against Chattanooga. The Wildcats play Austin Peay on the road between Southern Utah and Tarleton State. I can’t pick the Cats at this point. We’ll have to see how the season goes. I think the Governors go 4-4 in UAC and 2-2 OOC.
***Edit*** I found later information that the Governors have signed 20 FBS transfers to replace the 20+ players who bailed along with the coaching change. There is no way to predict what this team might do. I still think they are middle of the pack.
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Post by Cap'n on Jul 27, 2024 15:43:17 GMT -6
Southern Utah
Behind redshirt senior Justin Miller, the T-Birds went 0-3 on the road early against FBS teams then played the spoiler in the UAC by beating TSU, losing by 2 to AP and to UCA. They finished up by trouncing ACU, SFA and UTech. There is some enthusiasm for USU based on this play. However....
Miller graduated so they are looking for a new QB, new WRs, replaceing the DEs and Safeties. Their strengths are DT, LB, OL and RB. LB Kohner Cullimore and DT Rylan Sua-Filo were on the preseason all-UAC team. There are 4 senior OL and excellent RBs led by Braeden Wissler.
The schedule is pretty favorable with money games at CFP University of Utah and FBS UTEP on the road followed by Cal-Davis and Idaho St which are both winnable games. Possibly 2-2 entering conference play they are home against Tarleton, UTech, North Alabama and EKU and on the road against ACU, UCA, AP and West Georgia. With no QB and unproven WRs going into fall camp and new co-OCs, I'm seeing 3-5 in conference including a revenge loss to the Wildcats at Wildcat Stadium.
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Post by Outsider on Jul 27, 2024 16:55:54 GMT -6
I think SUU is going to miss Miller more than a lot of pollsters realize. Still, they will be hard to beat. Hard but not impossible. I still ranked them above us because we still haven't proven worthy otherwise. I am ready for the revenge win though...
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Post by Cap'n on Jul 28, 2024 14:01:45 GMT -6
And now, what might have been except for the only missed extra point all season. Instead of talking up ACU, everyone is talking up Tarleton.
And they should.
Offensively, the Texans have great weapons: RB Britten, WRs Cooper and Omayebu (who led the team in receptions including 10 against ACU), and QB Gabolis. Their OL is experienced. They will be tough to stop this year. For them to win the conference, however, Gabolis must play better. He had a 13/16 int/td ratio and a 54% completion percentage. Only one offensive transfer, WR Jason Essex from Iowa St.
Defensively, TSU is led by preseason all conference DT Brandon Tolvert. Since they have not posted a roster, it's a bit difficult to project the defense. However, they did pick up 8 defensive transfers, 6 from JC programs and 2 from FCS.
Tarleton has a very favorable schedule. FCS OOC games against McNeese, HCU, and SELA. A money game at Baylor. On the road in the UAC against NAU, WGU, AP and Southern Utah. At home against Utah Tech and EKU then finishing the year back-to-back against rival ACU and UCA. It's not out of the question that they will be undefeated in FCS going into the game against ACU. Lots of football between now and then, of course, but the ACU game looms huge for the Texans with UCA the following week.
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Post by Outsider on Jul 28, 2024 17:23:57 GMT -6
ACU didn't lose to Tarleton because of one missed PAT. We lost because we simply couldn't stop them from scoring. That is what pollsters are thinking will happing to Tarleton opponents again this year. They think Tarleton will be pretty difficult to stop. Do they really go undefeated in FCS? I am not so sure. They are still Tarleton, and prone to upsets. I just hope we are one of them and this is another revenge game I would love to see us have.
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Post by Cap'n on Jul 28, 2024 17:27:38 GMT -6
Everybody's favorite, UCA.
There has been a lot of hype for this team. Actually, there is almost every year but they haven't delivered since moving to the ASun/UAC. Could this be their year?
The Bears return a very efficient QB (Coached by Ken Collums) who is playing his seventh year, two terrific running backs and 4 starters on the OL. A big loss is WR Jarrod Barnes. However, they have brought in Trejan Bridges, former 4 star recruit from Oklahoma who was convicted in 2021 of larceny for robbing and beating a drug dealer. He hasn't played since and I think remains on probation or under some kind of court supervision. Big Risk/big Reward? They also added a giant 6'7 260 tight end from JUCO. They are very deep on the OL but another WR needs to emerge.
Four starters return on defense but they are very deep here as well. They include 3 preseason all-UAC selections DE Walker (DPOY); LB Charles; and S Wilson.
David Walker is a beast (18 tfl) but gone are Logan Jessup and Jake Golday who had 9 sacks between them and senior starting NG and DT. They return great talent but have to replace a ton of experience.
UCA has a very easy schedule. After opening with FBS Arkansas St., their OOC includes FCS Lamar, Lindenwood and UAPB. Home conference games include APeay, West Georgia, North Alabama and Southern Utah and there are road games at ACU, Utah Tech, EKU and the last game of the season at Tarleton.
Other than Arkansas State, there are no obvious losses on the schedule. However, ACU, EKU and, of course, Tarleton all on the road are not push overs.
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Post by Cap'n on Jul 28, 2024 19:16:43 GMT -6
ACU didn't lose to Tarleton because of one missed PAT. We lost because we simply couldn't stop them from scoring. That is what pollsters are thinking will happing to Tarleton opponents again this year. They think Tarleton will be pretty difficult to stop. Do they really go undefeated in FCS? I am not so sure. They are still Tarleton, and prone to upsets. I just hope we are one of them and this is another revenge game I would love to see us have. Not disagreeing. But the margin was the missed extra point. |
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Post by Cap'n on Jul 30, 2024 13:37:47 GMT -6
To finish this thread I suppose I need to compare what we know now about ACU with the other teams in the UAC. So, here goes.
The last 2 years have seen a huge makeover of the roster. Coach Patterson will tell us that this is the most talented roster he's had so far. Much more important to this year's success, IMO, are the coaching changes. Biggest one is the hiring of Rick Bowie as OC. Rick has a track record of producing high quality offenses and I can't wait to see what he can do with this roster. With all of our angst about the QB position, my analysis reveals that Maverick did not play badly last year. He only threw 5 interceptions on the year. Aside from Bowie, McIvor has been gifted a massive upgrade at the wide receiver position. How much better will Mav be throwiing not only to Blayne Taylor but to JJ Henry, Nehemiah Martinez, Trey Cleveland and Javon Gibson? I've been told that the new offense will use 6'7 tight end Jed Castles more than last year.
But wait, there's more. Returning are three running backs who averaged 5.4 yards per carry or more: J Sunday (5.4), Jordan Vaughn (5.5) and RoVaughn Banks (6.4). Transfers Isaiah Johnson of UNT (6.2) and Sam Hicks of Central Michigan add senior depth to the room. They will be running behind maybe be best interior OL in the league plus OSU transfer Trent Pullen who took over at RT for the last 4 games in 2023. Figuring out who starts at LT will be a major task during August.
And there's a new DC but we know him well. KP has taken over the defense with the help of co-coordinator Aaron Fletcher. The defense is loaded. It's no fluke that the Cats placed 3 players on the preseason all-UAC. Moffett, Coheley, and Moore. Add Kelly, transfer Myles healthy Butler and Young. Corners and Safeties are solid. Look for Mukes to break out at CB. The DT is deeper and includes Butler plus rising stars Herpin, Lawson, Oke and transfer Dawson. If you might be worried that we don't have enough big 'uns, I've been told that several guys weigh considerably more than what the roster shows.
What does this mean for the season? I think we are good enough to compete for the championship. But I'll say it before Outsider does: we've not been there before and that matters. We have by far the toughest OOC schedule. In my opinion, Tarleton and UCA are in the top tier. ACU is in the second tier with EKU. AP and Southern Utah are huge question marks. I just don't know where they belong. Utah Tech, North Alabama and West Georgia don't project high but everybody is dangerous.
Should we finish 2nd, we could be in line for a playoff spot if we get an OOC win against either Idaho or SFA (or both).
So now I'm locking this thread and opening a prediction thread in a few days.
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