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Post by Cap'n on Oct 7, 2024 14:05:27 GMT -6
Another big week in the UAC. As usual, point spreads and ratings are courtesy of MasseyRatings.com.
#34 Eastern Kentucky at #39 Southern Utah (-2.5)
After two big losses against FBS teams, EKY has bounced back and beaten 3 weaker FCS teams. So who are the Colonels? We'll know a lot more after this weekend in Cedar City. I still think SUU will have a say in who gets into the playoffs from the UAC but they've got to win this weekend. SUU 35 EKU 17
#89 West Georgia at #16 Central Arkansas (-24.5)
Except for the ACU game, UCA's schedule is backend loaded. 3 easier games followed by 3 more difficult ones. West Georgia has played everybody pretty close. But probably not this week. UCA 54 UGW 14
#21 Abilene Christian (-7.5) at #64 North Alabama
The Cats cannot take this game lightly. (Think about Northern Colorado.) They've jumped on the last 2 opponents early and that trend must continue. UNA is feeling good after winning big at home against Utah Tech. They may not feel so good after ACU comes to town. ACU 45 UNA 21
#107 Utah Tech at #18 Tarleton State (-18.5)
The Trailblazers are giving up 49.1 points per game and now they play on the road against another great offense. Tarleton 55 Tech 7
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Post by Cap'n on Oct 7, 2024 14:31:39 GMT -6
The Wildcats are ranked 10th and 12th in the Stats Perform and the Coaches polls respectively. So why are the Massey Ratings so different. Here are several things about how Massey projects the ratings:
1. The ratings have an historical component. Specifically, where a team starts at the beginning of the year matters. By the end of the season, the ratings are based on only the current season as the weight of a teams starting spot diminishes.
2. Location matters. Simply put, road wins are worth more than home wins against the same team and the reverse...home losses hurt you more. That's why ACU only went up 4 spots and UCA only went down 4 spots after last weekend.
3. Score differential matters. So does strength of schedule but not as much as you might think.
4. Finally, long-term success matters. It's harder to move past a team with sustained success if you are a rising program. You have to win over time.
Numbers 3 and 4 are primarily reflected in Baysian adjustments that mitigate the effects of random occurences. Also, they play a bigger part in the power ratings. We are 21 but 25 in the power ratings. S Illinois is 23 but 13 in the power ratings.
All in all, these ratings are a pretty good reflection of where we really are relative to other programs.
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Post by rc on Oct 7, 2024 15:59:24 GMT -6
Hey Cap'n, impressive! Baysian statistics, refined by LaPlace, are about the best predictor around. You must have lettered in Statistics.
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Post by Cap'n on Oct 7, 2024 17:05:12 GMT -6
Hey Cap'n, impressive! Baysian statistics, refined by LaPlace, are about the best predictor around. You must have lettered in Statistics. Yes. I was honorable mention all district in Stats.
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Post by dallasalum on Oct 7, 2024 22:36:45 GMT -6
Having watched the Vanderbilt-Alabama game, I do not predict the outcome of football games. As Daryl Royal used to say "there ain't no thing as a horse that can't be rode, or a man that can't be throwed".
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Post by EvanNemec on Oct 11, 2024 7:59:32 GMT -6
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Post by buckeyecat on Oct 11, 2024 11:09:59 GMT -6
Wow! He is a great representative of ACU and Christians everywhere!
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Post by acutrackfan on Oct 12, 2024 14:46:17 GMT -6
I will tell you this game scares me (more on the North Alabama thread). I think we win, but I am not sure we cover - something like 34-28 for the 'Cats.
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